عنوان مقاله [English]
The structure and spatial developments of the southwestern part of Tehran metropolis have been gradually developed and formed over time and under spatial and temporal conditions and other economic, social, communication, physical, environmental, etc. factors. But in the meantime, in order to have a proper understanding of the forces influencing the spatial developments in this region, the necessity of recognizing the key impulses influencing this relationship has become more and more necessary; In this way, the key forces affecting future spatial developments can be examined. In this regard, this article has tried to identify and cluster the driving force the spatial developments of southwestern Tehran-Islamshahr city on the horizon of 1410 by structural analysis method. Theoretical data were prepared by documentary method and experimental data by survey method based on Delphi technique. Statistical population of 20 urban experts based on purposeful sampling and development drivers, 55 driving force in 6 dimensions of development (economic, socio-cultural, managerial-institutional, physical, communication and environmental) which by structural interaction analysis in MICMAC software is processed. Findings in terms of interaction analysis indicate the dispersion of propulsive forces in a complex and intermediate state of impact and effectiveness; The propulsion clustering system indicates the focus of effective and regulated propulsion. Of the 55 development drivers, 10 are the key driving force of development; These include the structural changes of the national and global economy, the existence of spatial and spatial dispersion, the activities of unauthorized and polluting industries (castings and plating), the crisis of drinking water and natural hazards, the integration and transformation of densely populated villages into cities. Extensive land use change, immigration, poverty and low levels of human and social development, widespread spatial development and rapid physical growth, and excessive pressure on water and soil resources. These forces are stable in terms of system performance of input propulsion, which has a high impact role and low effectiveness. As a result, it controls the macro-state of the system and its changes, and the spatial evolution of these backgrounds depends on their performance.