سنجش و الویت بندی تاب آوری مناطق روستایی در برابر زلزله مورد مطالعه: بخش ویلکیج جنوبی و مرکزی شهرستان نمین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

تاب­آوری روستایی رویکردی اجتماع محور برای ارتقای آمادگی اجتماعات روستایی در برابر ناپایداری­های ناشی از مخاطرات است کاهش آسیب­پذیری روستائیان از طریق افزایش سطح تاب­آوری و ارتقای انعطاف­پذیری در برابر پیامدهای طبیعی، یکی از ویژگی­های مدیریت، برنامه­ریزی و توسعه باشد که از طریق شناسایی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر تقویت تاب­­آوری امکان­پذیر است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل و سطح­بندی تاب­آوری مناطق روستایی شهرستان نمین در برابر زلزله انجام شده است. پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف کاربدی و بر اساس ماهیت توصیفی- تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش 24 روستای دارای سکنه دهستان ویلکیج جنوبی و مرکزی با جمعیت 18249 نفر است. حجم نمونه بر اساس فرمول کوکران380 نفر برآورد گردید که پراکندگی تعداد نمونه­ها در روستاها متناسب با جمعیت آنها و شیوه انتخاب نمونه در هر روستا به صورت تصادفی سیستماتیک بوده است. برای تنظیم پرسشنامه از پنج شاخص تاب­آوری(اقتصادی، اجتماعی، کالبدی- محیطی، نهادی و روانی) در قالب 45 گویه بهره گرفته شد. میزان پایایی پرسشنامه بر اساس آلفای کرونباخ 91/0 ارزیابی گردید. برای وزن­دهی شاخص­ها از تکنیک آنتروپی شانون استفاده گردید، جهت سطح­بندی روستاها از تکنیک­های تصمیم­گیری topsis، vikor و saw  و برای ادغام نتایج نیز از تکنیک کپلند استفاده گردید. یافته­های پژوهش نشان می­دهد معیار کمک هزینه­های دولتی(027/0) مهمترین معیار و وابستگی به مکان(016/0) کم اهمیت­ترین معیار است. نتایج سطح­بندی روستاها بیانگر این است هشت روستا در سطح خوب، 10 روستا در سطح متوسط و شش روستا نیز در سطح ضعیف قرار دارند. نتایج آزمون t تک نمونه­ای با میانگین 93/2 نشان داد که تاب­آوری روستاهای دهستان ویلکیج جنوبی و مرکزی پایین­تر از حد متوسط است. می­توان دریافت تاب­آوری در برابر زلزله در وضعیت مناسبی قرار ندارد  و زلزله خطری جدی است که مناطق روستایی را تهدید می­کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Measuring and prioritizing earthquake resilience in rural areas Case study: South and central Wilkije part of Namin County

نویسندگان [English]

  • vahid taleihur
  • mohamad zaheri
  • soheyla bakhtar
  • ashkan shafiee
.
چکیده [English]

          Rural resilience is a community-based approach to improving the preparation of rural communities against the risks of instability, with the aim of the livability of rural settlements and planning for resilience in the crisis due to the great damage of natural risks such as earthquake into the environment and the village structure has made it an important part of future perspectives for societies. This study is application in based on objective and descriptive- analytical in based on nature. The statistical population is 24 inhabited villages of the southern and central Wilkij villages with a population of 18,249 people. The sample size was estimated at 380 people based on the Cochran formula which disperses the number of samples in the villages proportionate to their population and Sample selection method in each village has been randomized systematically.To adjust questionnaire was used of the five resilience indicators in the form of 45 items. The reliability of the was evaluated based on Cronbach's Alpha of 0.91.To weigh indicators was used from the Shannon Entropy technique, to level the villages was used from decision techniques of Topsis, Vikor and Saw and to integrate the results was used by Kopeld Technique. Findings show government grants (0.027) is the most important criterion and dependence on location (0.016) is the least important criterion. The results of the leveling of the villages indicate this eight villages are on a good level, 10 villages on average six villages are also at weak levels. The results of one-sample t-test with a mean of 2.93 showed that the resilience of the villages of the southern and central Wilkij villages was lower than the average. It can be concluded that resilience against earthquake is not in good condition and the earthquake is a serious danger that threaten to rural areas.
Key words: Resilience, Rural Resilience, Sustainability, Natural Risks , Earthquake, Namin county
 



 


 
 



 
 
 
Extended Abstract
Introduction:
         The location of many human settlements in earthquake-prone areas has made it inevitable to pay attention to policies, plans and programs to reduce damage and manage crisis. Because an earthquake is sudden and can be reflected on a large scale in an area and even overshadow national issues. The scale of the incident is sometimes so vast that it needs international attention and support. Attitude towards the issue of resilience and its analysis play a key role in understanding how the current situation is resilient and its causes, because its goal is to reduce vulnerability and strengthen people's ability to deal with the dangers posed by earthquake threats. Iran is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to its climatic and geological features and especially its location on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt. Meanwhile, in different regions of Ardabil province, many faults have the ability to create small, medium and large earthquakes, which has placed the province in the top 10 accident-prone provinces of Iran. Therefore, the only way to deal with possible damages and losses is to strengthen, comply with standards and safety in construction and increase public awareness of the dangers. Therefore, this study focuses on the concept of resilience, to study and level the resilience of villages in Namin city in the central and southern Wilkij suburbs against earthquakes in economic, social, environmental-physical, institutional and psychological dimensions. Paid. In this way, the villages that are at a low level should be identified and the necessary measures should be taken to improve their resilience.
Methodology:
       The present research is applied in terms of purpose and based on the descriptive nature of the analysis, the approach of which has been quantitative and the method of conducting research is research and data collection in the field. The statistical population of the study is 24 villages inhabited by the southern and central Wilkij suburbs of Namin city with a population of 18429 people. The sample size was estimated based on Cochran's formula of 380 people. The distribution of the number of samples in the villages was proportional to their population and the method of sample selection in the villages was systematic random. Both library and field methods were used to collect the information required for the research. To make the research operational, 5 indicators in the form of 45 items were used.  Shannon entropy technique was used to analyze the data to weight the indices. The entropy coefficient has a range between zero and one, the closer it is to one, the fair distribution and the closer it is to zero. Gives an imbalance in distribution. Topsis, vikor and saw techniques were used to level and prioritize earthquake resilience of villages. In order to obtain the same rank based on the combination of ranks obtained from decision-making techniques, the Copeland technique was used.
Findings:
          The stability of the infrastructure network, transportation network, shelters, building height and communication routes play a decisive role in the sustainability of resilience, and failure to pay attention to them will cause more damage, because any service In times of crisis, it depends on a network of smooth and dynamic passages. Access to information, relief agencies, hospitals and fire brigades, and trained personnel in times of crisis have also been institutional factors influencing resilience. Due to the fact that the time of the earthquake is not predictable, the people must be fully prepared and the officials must have a purposeful plan for the formation of various governmental and non-governmental groups and organizations to monitor their activities during the earthquake. Comprehensive participation, so that they can improve their situation by maintaining morale and helping others. Finally, it can be mentioned that the differences in the regions and villages show the vulnerability to the earthquake crisis in different ways. However, the best defense against their occurrence can be mentioned, increasing the level of public awareness of risk and returning society to normal after the crisis, in which case and for its realization, the government and local communities must with the concept and capability of risk and resilience. ‌ Become familiar through training.  It can be said that vulnerability to earthquakes is a serious danger that threatens the rural areas of Namin city. Therefore, the situation can be improved by improving the infrastructure structures and access to a network of suitable roads and rescue and investigation of vulnerable points. This requires a holistic and systematic approach to vulnerability to reduce risks. To achieve the desired level of resilience in rural areas of Namin city against possible earthquake hazards, improving traffic and access network. Remote and mountainous villages on the main roads; Rehabilitation of houses and improvement of their quality by applying the principles of physical planning to reduce the level of vulnerability of villages and the establishment of Red Crescent and relief units in villages to address potential risks to help the victims is necessary.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Resilience
  • Rural Resilience
  • Sustainability
  • Natural Risks
  • Earthquake
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مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 16 آبان 1399
  • تاریخ دریافت: 17 آبان 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 28 شهریور 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 04 مهر 1399